Vertiflite May/June 2021

Chinook heavy-lift transport are available as new-production rotorcraft, and earlier AH-64 and CH-47 versions can be remanufactured to the new configurations. The US Army is the largest operator of both models. The current Army Procurement Objective for the AH-64E numbers 791 helicopters, including both remanufactured and new-build units. The Guardian is also popular on the export market. Among recent sales successes for the combat helicopter is the January 2021 selection of the AH-64E to replace Airbus Tigers in the Australian Army fleet. Plans call for 29 AH-64Es to be acquired by the service, with deliveries to begin in 2025. While the future of the US Army’s AH-64E program appears relatively secure, the fate of the Block II upgrade program for the Army’s CH-47F fleet remains somewhat uncertain. Congress made an attempt to jumpstart the Block II program by adding funding for the effort to the FY21 defense appropriations bill. The legislators added funds for the procurement of an initial lot of five Block II helicopters in FY21 and advance procurement funds for a second lot of five in FY22. At this writing, the Army has not made a final determination on whether to proceed with Block II. Should the program go forward, the Army’s tentative plans call for some 470 CH-47Fs to be remanufactured to the Block II standard. The Block II configuration includes composite rotor blades, a lightweight fuel system, an improved drivetrain and structural strengthening in critical areas. It should be noted that the Army is proceeding with plans to acquire more than 70 Special Operations MH- 47Gs in a somewhat similar Block II configuration. The MH- 47G Block II helicopters are to be a mix of new-build units and conversions of existing MH-47Gs. Sikorsky has a major presence in the military rotorcraft market. The company is producing UH-60M Black Hawks for the US Army and export customers. Among other H-60 versions in the company’s product line are the HH-60W combat rescue helicopter (which is being acquired by the US Air Force), the HH-60Mmedevac helicopter, the S-70i multirole model, and the MH-60R Seahawk maritime version.A variant of Sikorsky’s S-92 civil helicopter, called the VH-92, has been chosen as the new rotary-wing transport for the US President. The CH-53K heavy-lift helicopter is in production for the US Marine Corps, and picked up its first export customer in February 2021 when it was selected as the new heavy-lift transport helicopter of the Israel Defense Forces. During the second half of the forecast timeframe, production will begin to ramp up of the first new rotorcraft models that emerge from the Pentagon’s FVL effort. Focusing on the development of all-new rotorcraft across the capability spectrum, the FVL program signals the end of the US military’s reliance on legacy designs. The US Army’s Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA) is slated to fill the armed scout role. Two contenders are currently competing for the FARA contract. Bell is proposing the 360 Invictus, a tandem-seat helicopter with a four-bladed rotor. Sikorsky is proposing the Raider X, a rigid-rotor coaxial helicopter with a pusher propeller. The FARA program schedule calls for the competing prototypes to face each other in FY23 in a competitive fly-off, with one of the designs then selected for the FARA contract. Initial operational capability of the FARA is scheduled for 2028.

operational capability in 2030. Two competitors are competing for the FLRAA contract as well. These are Bell, which is proposing its V-280 Valor tiltrotor aircraft, and a team of Sikorsky and Boeing, which is proposing the Defiant X compound helicopter. An attack variant, aimed at replacing AH-64s in the Army fleet, could eventually be developed from the FLRAA utility model, but this effort is currently on hold. The US Marine Corps’ AH-1Zs and UH-1Ys could also be replaced by FLRAA variants. The Marines’ requirement for this is known as the Attack/Utility Replacement Aircraft (AURA). In January 2021, the US Naval Air Systems Command issued a Request for Information for its Future Vertical Lift Maritime Strike (FVL-MS) effort to replace the Navy’s MH-60R and MH-60S Seahawk helicopters and MQ-8 Fire Scout unmanned aerial vehicles. In October 2020, the NATO Next Generation Rotorcraft Capability (NGRC) initiative was officially launched with the signing of a Letter of Intent by the defense ministers of France, Germany, Greece, Italy and the UK. The effort is initially aimed at design, development and production of a new medium-class multi-role rotorcraft to replace existing assets in allied fleets starting in the 2035–2040 timeframe (see “NATO Plans Next-Generation Medium Rotorcraft For 2035,” Vertiflite , March/April 2021). The NGRC initiative is, so far, completely independent of the Pentagon’s FVL program, but it is looking at basically the same requirement as the FLRAA project.Thus, some formof cooperation could emerge in the future. In July 2020, the UK signed amemorandumof agreement regarding cooperation with the US Army in various areas, including the FVL program. The UK essentially acts as an observer of the FVL effort. Italy has also indicated interest in securing some role in the program. Whichever rotorcraft is ultimately selected as the US Army’s FLRAA platform would become a major contender to fill the European NGRC medium rotorcraft requirement. However, Airbus Helicopters CEO Bruno Even said that there should be a European answer to the NGRC requirement. Our forecast indicates that some 5,270 military rotorcraft will be produced from 2021 through 2030. The value of this production is estimated at $134.4B in constant 2021 US dollars. The forecast includes new-build rotorcraft as well as certain remanufactured helicopters. Civil Rotorcraft Civil rotorcraft production has been declining since 2018, but the pandemic and its related effects exacerbated the downward trend in 2020. Production of both turbine-powered and piston- powered civil rotorcraft declined during the year. The economic downturn that resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted demand for new civil rotorcraft. The oil and gas sector, once the engine of growth in the civil rotorcraft market, continues to be mired in a pronounced slump. Oil prices remain weak and, with global economic activity grinding to a halt in the wake of the pandemic, they took a steep dive, with the price of West Texas Intermediate crude falling into negative numbers in April 2020. Since then, prices have rebounded somewhat, with crude selling for around $65 per barrel by mid-March 2021.

May / June 2021

The Army’s Future Long Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA) is aimed at replacing the service’s Black Hawks and slated to achieve initial

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