Vertiflite May/June 2021

W ith the difficult year of 2020 now in the rearview mirror, the world rotorcraft industry is looking to the future with a sense of cautious optimism. hile, at this writing, the COVID-19 pandemic is far from over, vaccination rates are accelerating and economic improvement (however tentative) is underway. Continued progress is needed on both the medical and economic fronts in order for a sustained recovery in the civil rotorcraft marketplace to take hold. Meanwhile, the proliferation of designs for new electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft underscores the potential for such aircraft to become an important component of the future market. The military rotorcraft market has not been nearly as affected by the pandemic as has the civil market. The disruptions that occurred in the military market in 2020 appeared to be caused more by factors such as supply chain issues than by any significant diminution of demand frommilitary operators. Military rotorcraft production should thus experience a sharp rebound in 2021 before settling into a period of transition where build rates for legacy helicopter models gradually decline while development of a new generation of rotorcraft is completed for service entry in the late 2020s and beyond. 2021-2030 By Raymond Jaworowski and Douglas Royce, Forecast International TheWorld Rotorcraft Market

Military Rotorcraft Global military rotorcraft production fell by approximately 15% in 2020. A total of 504 rotorcraft were produced for military customers during the year, compared to 595 in 2019. Forecast International estimates that military production will slightly exceed 600 units in 2021, remain flat in 2022, and then gradually decline from 2023 through 2030. Sustained annual growth in the market might not resume in any substantial fashion until the early 2030s. At that time, production of a number of new rotorcraft intended to refresh and modernize global military fleets will have begun ramping up. These new designs will include rotorcraft emerging from the Pentagon’s Future Vertical Lift (FVL) program. Until that occurs, the world’s manufacturers will compete for sales in what will be a gradually slowing market. In the US and much of Europe, re-equipment cycles that have been underway for several years are at or near their end. Operators are well on their way to completing numerous acquisition programs that have been ongoing for several years. Meanwhile, the recent rise in US defense spending likely peaked with the FY20 budget; in any event, much of the increased spending was devoted to priorities other than the acquisition of new rotorcraft. Near-term market prospects are a bit brighter outside the US, where increased defense budgets are enabling some nations to launch or accelerate certain fleet modernization plans. One such effort is France’s joint-service Hélicoptère Interarmées Léger (HIL) program, which involves the replacement of five different helicopter types across the fleets of the country’s Air Force, Army and Navy. Airbus Helicopters’ H160M, a military variant of the company’s all-new H160 civil medium twin, has been selected to fill the HIL requirement. Under the HIL program, a total of 169 H160Ms are to be procured, with deliveries slated to begin in 2026. The French Navy plans to acquire four H160s in 2022 as an interim measure to ensure the continuation of search-and-rescue missions as it retires its Alouette IIIs while awaiting the start of H160M deliveries.

The Airbus Helicopters military product line ranges from the H125M light single up to the heavy-lift H215M and H225M. Along with Leonardo Helicopters and Fokker Aerostructures, Airbus Helicopters is also part of the NHIndustries consortium that markets and produces the NH90 multi-role helicopter. As of early 2021, NHIndustries had sold nearly 600 NH90s, of which more than 400 had so far been produced and delivered to customers. In 2020, the consortium picked up orders for 31 NH90s for the German Navy to replace that service’s Sea Lynx anti-submarine warfare helicopters. Leonardo has recently found considerable success in the US military market, winning two big procurement contests within an 18-month period. The company was selected in early 2020 to produce up to 130 TH-73A training helicopters for the US Navy. In the fall of 2018, a team of Leonardo and

Civil and Military Historical & Future Production 2000-2030

2,500

Civil Rotorcraft

Military Rotorcraft

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

May / June 2021

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